Are science competitions meeting their intentions? a case study on affective and cognitive predictors of success in the Physics Olympiad

Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Science Education Research

Table 3 Effects of predictor variables on advancement in the first and second competition round

	Advancement from R1 to R2		Advancement from R2 to R3
Variables	MAP	95% HPDI	MAP	95% HPDI
Affective variables
Expectancy of success (EXSU)	0.94	[0.08, 1.83]	-0.37	[-1.85, 1.03]
Values assigned to the competition (VACO)	-0.11	[-0.91, 0.70]	0.52	[-0.83, 1.95]
Self-efficacy (SEEF)	0.02	[-0.82, 0.83]	0.97	[-0.64, 2.70]
Social support (SOSU)	0.11	[-0.67, 0.96]	0.16	[-1.18, 1.46]
Cognitive variables
General cognitive abilities (GCAB)	0.91	[-0.24, 2.15]	0.00	[-1.92, 2.17]
Physics problem solving ability (PPSA)	1.59	[0.47, 2.54]	1.01	[-0.18, 2.41]

Note R1 = first competition round; R2 = second competition round; R3 = third competition round; MAP = maximum a posteriori estimate; 95% HPDI = 95% highest posterior density interval